A 50/50 warning about seating Democrats after the midterms

The interviewee argues that the decisive test of a democracy is not simply whether people vote, but whether the winners are installed in power. Asked for a midterm-election prediction, the interviewee says it is 'at best 50/50' that President Trump would allow Democrats to be seated in the House and Senate if they win. This is a warning about a possible outcome, not a claim that it will happen.

The interviewee grounds that concern in an October 2020 appearance on Chicago Tonight. At the time, they warned that the danger extended beyond election day and the counting of votes to Congress’s role in early January. They say few people were then talking about a potential problem on January 6. In their account, President Trump subsequently tried to prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden after the 2020 presidential election, and a mob stormed the Capitol.

The interviewee thinks a new confrontation could unfold differently. In 2020, they say, resistance from people inside the Justice Department, the military and other parts of government pushed President Trump’s efforts outside normal channels. Now, they argue, he has placed more people in senior positions who would not object to his orders. That makes resistance within government less certain. If the US military were brought onto the streets to suppress protesters, the interviewee expects the risk to arise not necessarily on election day, but amid a dispute over seating Democratic winners. They worry such a refusal could become violent and would gravely injure the Constitution.