Unprecedented Rule Changes in SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs: Risks for Retail Investors

The upcoming IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are among the most significant in history, with SpaceX targeting $75 billion raised—double Saudi Aramco's record ($38 billion at IPO, $29 billion at the time)—but a market cap of $2 trillion, less than current leaders like Nvidia ($5 trillion+), Apple ($4 trillion+), Google and Microsoft ($4 trillion+, $3 trillion+). The IPO structure and index inclusion rules have been radically reworked; retail investors face new risks as passive index funds are set to buy far more shares, and early insiders can sell faster, changing fundamental IPO dynamics.

A chart [source: Bloomberg, inferred from reference] shows Saudi Aramco's IPO at $38 billion, market cap of $2.4 trillion, with the analogy that selling only a fraction of shares gives the company both operating funds and maintains control. SpaceX aims to raise $75 billion with a $2 trillion market cap, OpenAI and Anthropic around $900 billion valuations, highlighting the massive scale but not making SpaceX the largest public company.

The IPO lockup period changes are key: SpaceX's prospectus permits early investors to sell up to 20% of shares after the first earnings report at the end of Q2 (end of June), plus 10% more if shares are up 30%+ for five of ten trading days post-earnings. A layered lockup structure allows increments of 7% to unlock after 70, 90, 105, 120, 135 days, with 28% unlocking after Q3 earnings and full unlock at 180 days. In contrast to typical IPOs, this enables insiders to sell much earlier, distributing selling pressure and potentially mitigating the 'pump and dump' pattern seen in Robinhood (-92% post-IPO), Coinbase (-92%), and Rivian (-95%).

SpaceX's immediate inclusion in NASDAQ 100, using the 'fast entry rule' (first 15 trading days), ensures all passive funds—401(k)s, pensions—will buy shares, with value diverted from existing NASDAQ giants. However, due to the spread across large-cap stocks (like Nvidia and Apple), no significant selling in those is expected. The risk arises from the float: SpaceX offers only $75 billion in public float (under 3% of shares), but NASDAQ will apply a 'float multiplier' (possibly 2x–5x), artificially increasing index demand. This could inflate prices unless offset by insider selling enabled by new lockup rules.

Elon Musk is excluded from early selling provisions (locked up for 366 days), ensuring this payday benefits early investors but not Musk directly. The new IPO and index rules serve as a Hail Mary for unprofitable companies to raise large sums, provide early exits, and extend their runway for eventual profitability. The speaker warns retail investors: history shows IPO hype often precedes poor economic conditions (notably in 2008, 2020–2021, and the 347 IPOs in 2025). Retail buyers are literally the 'exit strategy' for insiders, and waiting for post-IPO price stabilization may be safer. This approach, the speaker suggests, lets early investors exit while retail potentially faces losses—caution is urged when considering participation in these IPOs.